The Ten Commandments of Risk Analysis

The Ten Commandments of risk analysis according to Prof Granger Morgan and Prof Max Henrion (1990):

• Do your homework with literature, experts, and users
• Let the problem drive the analysis
• Make the analysis as simple as possible, but no simpler
• Identify all significant assumptions
• Be explicit about decision criteria and policy strategy
• Be explicit about uncertainties
• Perform systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
• Iteratively refine the problem statement and analysis
• Document clearly and completely
• Expose to peer review